RWA炼金术士
RWA炼金术士- GC专栏是由金洲资管（Golden Continent）推出的金融资产代币化专栏平台，专注于探索传统金融与区块链技术的融合边界，构建传统金融与Web3世界的桥梁。 金洲资管投研团队深耕全球资本市场逾二十年，拥有成熟的宏观对冲基金策略体系和专业的多资产分析框架。我们将这一套行之有效的传统金融投资理念与方法论，延伸并重构于链上，致力于推动现实世界资产（RWA）的智能化、透明化与代币化。 RWA炼金术士- GC专栏不仅是一个信息平台，更是一个连接机构投资者、RWA研究者与Web3构建者的思想枢纽。我们相信，只有真正理解传统金融底层逻辑，才能推动区块链金融迈向可持续、高质量的发展路径。 Slogan：解码金融资产代币化的真实价值
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美聯儲降息落地，節前板塊輪動加速
美聯儲降息25BP，日本央行按兵不動。國內8月經濟數據企穩，工業、消費環比正增長。大類資產中，港股強勢突破，A股成長板塊輪動上漲但週末回調；利率債波動加大，信用債短端城投受青睞。關注結構性機會，警惕長假前流動性擾動。
RWA炼金术士
三力共振助推股市，債市靜待數據政策明朗
資金面、海外降息預期與產業催化共同推動A股站穩3800點、港股創四年高點。利率債區間震盪，市場關注週一國內經濟數據及央行是否重啟國債買賣操作，美債聚焦降息幅度與曲線形態。
RWA炼金术士
流動性寬鬆助推A股成交破紀錄，海外降息預期與財政擔憂並存
國內流動性保持寬鬆，A股日成交額連續18日超2萬億元，市場活躍度創紀錄。海外美國非農就業數據遠遜預期，強化9月降息預期，但多國長期國債仍因財政可持續性擔憂遭拋售，收益率上行，呈現“降息”與“拋售”並存的矛盾局面。
RWA炼金术士
A股創階段新高，美債再現波動
A股成交連續13日超2萬億元，上證收於3857點創階段新高，股債資金分流效應持續；美聯儲理事罷免風波引發獨立性擔憂，美債收益率寬幅震盪。國內政策托底與海外降息預期交織，重點關注美國8月非農數據及南向資金動向。
RWA炼金术士
居民存款湧入股市，美聯儲鴿派表態強化寬鬆預期
A股市場量價齊升，日均成交超2.4萬億元，居民存款再現“搬家”跡象，資金湧動支撐A股創十年新高；美聯儲主席鮑威爾意外釋放鴿派信號，美債收益率大幅下行，風險資產獲得提振。
RWA炼金术士
A股創年內新高，美債波動加劇
中美延長關稅休戰90天，A股創2024年新高，股債蹺蹺板效應下國債收益率上行。美國通脹數據反復，PPI超預期，降息預期修正，10年期美債單周波幅達10BP，關注8月22日鮑威爾講話。
RWA炼金术士
股債蹺蹺板效應減弱，流動性驅動股債雙升
A股收復3600點，境內信用債現60億超募熱潮，增值稅新規分歧未解，聯儲9月降息概率超80%。
RWA炼金术士
增值稅新政觸發債市分化，美國非農爆冷點燃降息預期
政治局會議政策定調未超預期，疊加7月製造業PMI降至49.3%，國內避險情緒升溫；海外方面，美國非農新增就業僅7.3萬人引爆9月降息預期。
RWA炼金术士
A-shares saw high volume and bond fund redemptions, and policy narratives triggered sector competition.
Policy narratives dominate short-term sentiment, but weak fundamentals (particularly on the demand side) may trigger a correction in asset prices. Be wary of overheated adjustments in commodity and stock markets, and pay attention to the linkage between liquidity and equity markets.
RWA炼金术士
A-share risk appetite rebounded marginally amid external tariff shocks and chip easing
The US CPI rose 2.7% in June, showing resilience. Domestic special bonds provided support, contributing to higher-than-expected social financing in June. The US Department of Commerce verbally approved Nvidia's continued export of H20 chips to China, potentially extending the tariff suspension period beyond August 12.
RWA炼金术士
Prices bottom out as tariffs rise, anti-involutionary policies support commodities
In terms of the domestic macro environment, CPI turned positive year-on-year in June, but PPI continued to decline, indicating that industrial deflationary pressure has not been relieved and domestic demand is still weak. The "anti-involution" policy supports industries with excess capacity, but the sustainability of price recovery is questionable. Overseas, the Trump administration has raised tariffs on many countries to 30%-35%, and the probability of policy realization has increased, reflecting its fiscal and election considerations. In terms of investment strategy, interest rate bonds are volatile and weak, and credit bond spreads are narrowing, so valuation risks need to be guarded against. A-shares fluctuated upward, banks and steel sectors performed well, and defensive sectors of Hong Kong stocks were favored. Convertible bond valuations are high, and individual bonds are more differentiated. The commodity market is driven by policy expectations, but fundamentals are differentiated. U.S. bonds have become a safe haven for funds due to overseas fiscal concerns, and their attractiveness has increased. The overall market remains highly volatile under the game between policies and funds.
RWA炼金术士
Previous investment research article (originally published on 2025/07/08) - Policy games dominate the market, and the credit bond asset shortage continues
The fundamentals of the U.S. economy are strong, and the non-farm employment data in June exceeded expectations, but structural concerns still exist, and inflation stickiness makes it difficult for the Fed to turn around. China's economic recovery is slowing down, and the PMI in June showed marginal improvement but did not stabilize in the expansion range. The policy may increase "loose fiscal policy + stable monetary policy". Trump signed the "Big and Beautiful" bill, which significantly cut taxes and cut spending, which may increase the fiscal deficit. China's policy focus has shifted to "bottom-up growth + efficiency-enhancing structure" to promote new quality productivity and equipment upgrades. Funding risk appetite has rebounded, short-term interest rates in the bond market have fallen, credit bond trading has warmed up, A-share transactions have been active, and some sectors of Hong Kong stocks have retreated. The commodity market was boosted by the rebound in PMI, but tariff uncertainty increased. U.S. bonds and stocks were affected by employment data, and the market lowered expectations for a rate cut in July.
RWA炼金术士
Previous investment research articles (originally published on 2025/07/03)
The conflict between Israel and Iran has been suspended, but nuclear threats and regional security remain tense. The Federal Reserve released a signal of interest rate cuts and monetary policy shifted. China's industrial profit growth rate fell in May, weak demand dragged down the economy, and fiscal policy increased the "double" and "two new" areas. U.S. durable goods orders rebounded, but real estate sales and consumer confidence were sluggish. In the bond market, interest-bearing bonds were dominated by easing expectations, credit bond trading was differentiated, and overseas bond issuance heated up. A-shares and Hong Kong stocks were boosted by policy and regional easing, and technology and high-interest sectors received attention. The convertible bond index hit a new high, and the strategy was mainly to stop profit. Commodity market sentiment improved, but economic fundamentals constrained price elasticity. U.S. bond yields are falling, and the market expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in September. The strategy recommends gradually increasing holdings of U.S. bonds.
RWA炼金术士
Previous investment research article (originally published on 2025/06/24) - The Fed remains on hold, and domestic bond rates are falling
The yield of interest-bearing bonds fluctuated within a narrow range, the funding situation was stable, the disturbance of cross-tax period was digested, and the decline of overnight and 7-day interest rates showed that liquidity improved. The market tended to trade in July in advance, paying attention to the renewal of MLF, the renewal of 30-year treasury bonds and real estate policies. The yield of credit bonds declined, the sentiment was warmer, the performance of the medium and long end was better than the short end, and the credit spread narrowed; the interest rate of new issuance in the primary market hit a new low this year, and the transaction in the secondary market was active. The buying orders in high-yield regions such as Yunnan, Guizhou and Shandong increased. The marginal loosening of Chinese overseas bond issuance, Henan's new issuance subscription was good, which was reportedly related to the local government's debt resolution. Many places counted the demand for overseas bonds and relaxed regulatory policies. A-share sentiment has recovered after adjustment, but risk-off sentiment still exists. Technology chain and defense and military trade sectors may have opportunities; Hong Kong stocks fluctuated upward, high dividends and technology Internet are attractive. The convertible bond market presents a "high price, low valuation" pattern, the premium rate is at a four-year low, and liquidity remains active.
RWA炼金术士
Previous investment research article (originally published on 2025/06/17) - Geographical risks, falling interest rates
Analysis of the interest rate bond market shows that yields fluctuated downward across the board, with 10-year treasury bond yields approaching historical lows. Changes in commercial bank liquidity became the dominant factor, bond market leverage rose, and some bond funds implemented purchase restrictions to curb overheating. In the credit bond market, primary issuance rates generally declined, low- and medium-rated municipal investment bonds in the secondary market performed strongly, and overseas bond yields continued to decline. The A-share and Hong Kong stock markets were active, but it became more difficult to increase risk appetite, and Hong Kong stocks were greatly affected by the confusion of overseas interest rate cut expectations. The convertible bond market valuation was at a low level, and the rebound was supported by the recovery of liquidity. The commodity market was affected by the weak domestic recovery and international geopolitical conflicts, and its performance was differentiated. The U.S. bond market is disturbed by inflation, and the RMB appreciation momentum continues, but weak domestic demand remains a hidden concern.
RWA炼金术士
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