Frank
PANews官方作者
364Followers230Articles
In-depth analysis of 27,000 trades by Polymarket's top ten whales: The illusion of "smart money's" winning rate and the real rules of survival.
While many of these "smart money" investors employ hedging and arbitrage strategies in their actual operations, this hedging differs significantly from the simplistic hedging strategies interpreted on social media. The actual strategies are far more complex, going beyond simple "yes" or "no" combinations. They leverage rules like "over/under" and "win/loss" in sports events to create combined hedging combinations. Another important finding is that behind the remarkably high historical win rates lies a large number of unclosed "zombie orders" held by these whales, masking the true win rate, which is far lower than the historical average.Frank2026-01-04 08:03
Gambling or Cognitive Monetization? Deconstructing the Smart Money Path and Eleven Arbitrage Strategies in the Prediction Market
Recently, the prediction market has emerged as a dark horse, not only because of its independent performance in volatile market conditions, but also because of the series of high-return "smart money" strategies that have emerged behind it, making it widely regarded as one of the most promising sectors in 2026.Frank2025-12-29 08:08
PANews 2025 Annual Public Blockchain Data Review: A Moment of "Naked Swimming," Who Is Growing Against the Trend?
2025 will be a dramatic and watershed year for the public blockchain sector in the crypto world. If 2024 was a "carnival night" in which various new public blockchains competed for attention with high expectations of airdrops and grand narratives, then 2025 will be the "wake-up call" after the carnival.Frank2025-12-23 08:14
Market Liquidity Survey: Amid Declining Liquidity, Retail Investors "Buy Lottery Tickets," While Major Investors "Purchase Insurance"
PANews attempts to analyze the current market capital landscape using data from several sources, including order book depth, the options market, and stablecoins. The ultimate conclusion is that the market does not appear to have experienced a genuine recovery, but rather is trapped in a structurally divided state characterized by continuously declining liquidity and institutional funds accelerating their defensive posture.Frank2025-12-15 09:16
Delving into the on-chain data, these whales reveal a diverse range of personalities. Some are "contrarian indicators" who hold substantial funds but repeatedly fail, some are "snipers" who lie in wait for half a year to strike a decisive blow, and others are "cold-blooded machines" that use algorithms to harvest retail investors every second.
Frank2025-12-10 05:14
The collective failure to capitalize on the situation is not simply due to the depletion of "ammunition" at the peak or panic, but rather a systemic paralysis of the financing mechanism, which heavily relies on premiums, resulting in a situation where "money is available but cannot be used" during a downturn.
Frank2025-12-08 06:20
CZ engaged in a heated debate with gold advocate Peter Schiff, during which Schiff asked CZ for gold bars.
At the closing event of Binance Blockchain Week, Binance founder Changpeng Zhao (CZ) engaged in an in-depth face-to-face debate with Peter Schiff, a well-known "Bitcoin skeptic" and gold advocate. During the dialogue, the two discussed gold and Bitcoin from multiple perspectives, including their value storage, transactional attributes, and monetary forms.Frank2025-12-04 15:02
With the Federal Reserve announcing the end of QT, is this the starting gun for crypto or will it have to endure another winter?
In the past, has the end of QT truly brought new momentum to the market? PANews attempts to analyze the changes in the crypto market after the end of QT, using a method similar to the old adage "looking for a sword by marking the boat where it fell into the water."Frank2025-12-04 04:47
Despite receiving investment from Tether and endorsement from the Central Bank of Brazil, why is Rayls, an enterprise-grade blockchain, more praised than commercially successful?
Rayls officially launched TGE on December 1st. This project, which had previously received almost no attention, received support from Coinbase and Kraken, two leading overseas exchanges known for their strict compliance and risk control, during its initial launch phase. It was also simultaneously listed on multiple exchanges such as Binance Alpha, Gate, and Bitget.Frank2025-12-02 08:01
HIP-3 becomes a new engine for Hyperliquid: Leading DEX drives trading volume tenfold, but ecosystem challenges remain.
Behind the surge in trading volume is HIP-3's ambition to become the underlying trading platform for the future decentralized market. However, this transformation path is far more arduous than the data suggests.Frank2025-11-28 04:29
The stablecoin market is undergoing a transformation following the crash: a massive migration of billions of dollars as funds move away from leverage and embrace real returns.
The market crash on October 11 not only broke through the price defenses of crypto assets, but also triggered a massive migration of billions of dollars in the stablecoin sector.Frank2025-11-26 03:20
AI Assessment from a Quantitative Perspective: With all participants expecting profits less than 1, how far is artificial intelligence from replacing traders?
PANews tested six AI trading models: Doubao had the best win rate of 50% in the 4-hour timeframe with indicators, DeepSeek had the most stable win rate, and Gemini was good at pure candlestick charts. However, all models had a long-term expected profit of less than 1, indicating that AI is more suitable as a trading assistant than as a complete replacement for humans.Frank2025-11-24 06:37

