4Alpha Research
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[Macro Weekly Report┃4 Alpha] Soft and hard divisions, repeated tariffs: On the eve of recession? What is the market dilemma?
The current market is stuck in the dilemma of "disordered expectations": tariff policies repeatedly disturb market pricing, and the split between soft and hard economic data exacerbates the concerns of stagflation. The Fed's neutral and hawkish stance resonates with fiscal pressure, and the structural mismatch of the interest rate curve may trigger a double kill of credit assets. It is recommended to maintain a defensive position, focus on volatility repricing opportunities, and be wary of fundamental risk exposure under false data.
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[Macro Weekly Report┃4 Alpha] Is capital fleeing the United States? What signal does the bond sell-off give?
The U.S. market suffered a triple blow in stocks, bonds and currencies. The U.S. Treasury yield soared to 4.47%, the U.S. dollar index fell below 100, and gold broke through $3,200. The risk of stagflation emerged, the liquidity crisis and the spiral of selling U.S. Treasury bonds intensified, and the pressure of nearly 9 trillion debt maturing in 2025 was added. The market turned to defensive logic and safe-haven assets diverged.
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[Macro Weekly Report┃4Alpha] What is the impact of the implementation of reciprocal tariffs?
This week, the Trump administration launched an unexpected reciprocal tariff policy, the US stock market recorded its biggest drop in 2020, and commodities collapsed. The US bond yield plunged, pricing in a recession, and the non-farm data concealed concerns about rising unemployment. China-EU countermeasures may prolong the game cycle, and Bitcoin has become a liquidity-sensitive safe-haven target. In the period of policy chaos, defense is the best, focusing on next week's CPI data.
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[Macro Weekly Report┃4 Alpha] Market pressure increases, waiting for the implementation of reciprocal tariffs?
The risk of stagflation in the United States is rising: Q1 GDP is expected to fall by 1.8%, 290 of the 387 metropolitan areas have rising unemployment rates, and PCE inflation stickiness is prominent. Market risk aversion is dominant, gold is rising/US stocks and cryptocurrencies are under pressure, and the widening of credit spreads has exacerbated recession concerns. The April 2 reciprocal tariff decision may become a short-term weather vane. It is recommended to allocate gold and US bonds to hedge against volatility, and sell off technology and crypto assets at highs. Key observations: non-agricultural data and tariff impact.
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Unveiling the secrets of funding rate arbitrage: How do institutions “make money without doing anything”, and why can retail investors “see it but not get any benefit”?
Funding rate arbitrage strategy is one of the more stable income strategies in the crypto market and is favored by institutions. However, for ordinary investors, this strategy is extremely difficult to implement and is often "visible but not achievable". This article will deeply analyze the basic principles and specific methods of funding rate arbitrage, as well as the core competitiveness of institutions in this field, to help readers fully understand its essence and application.
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[Macro Weekly Report┃4 Alpha] After the FOMC meeting, before the implementation of equal tariffs
[Macro Express] The Fed's "data dependence" stabilizes expectations, and gold breaks through $3,000! Next week's reciprocal tariffs may cause trade turmoil, and the market is cautiously defensive and waiting for opportunities to deploy. Inflation game + liquidity improvement, pay attention to core PCE data, and the strategy should be "both defensive and offensive".
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[Macro Weekly Report┃4 Alpha] When will the turning point come? How to interpret the signals from the credit market?
Market adjustment continues, defensive assets become safe havens! Gold breaks new highs, BTC still has value in the long term, and the widening credit spreads sound the alarm. Next week, focus on the Fed meeting, interest rate cut expectations and QT suspension may become key signals of turning points!
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[Macro Weekly Report┃4 Alpha] The trend is uncertain, non-farm payrolls are differentiated, will it rebound or further bottom out?
The breakout of US stocks triggered a systematic sell-off, and the differentiation of non-farm employment showed pressure on the demand side. The Fed reiterated its inflation anchor target, and the policy balance tilted towards interest rate cuts. The impact of tariffs and economic resilience still need to be verified by data. It is recommended to flexibly position in response to CPI/PPI guidance and capture the recession/recovery trading switching window.
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[Macro Weekly Report┃4 Alpha] Stagflation or recession, what is the market trading?
The market is trapped in the game of recession expectations: the U.S. Treasury yield inversion is a warning, funds are pouring into government bonds for risk aversion, and U.S. stocks and crypto assets are under pressure. Next week's non-farm data may set the tone for the intensity of the "recession trade", and defense is the main focus in volatility. In the long term, we are still optimistic about the innovation potential of the crypto track, and short-term fluctuations will not change the upward trend
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[Market Insights | 4 Alpha] From cold wallets to hot crises: The loss of giants caused shocks, how can investors resist fragility?
Bybit and Infini, two major platforms, have been attacked by hackers one after another. The isolation mechanism of cold and hot wallets and the loopholes in permission management have become fatal shortcomings. Although the market has seen a panic withdrawal of coins, the entry of $4 billion of institutional funds against the trend has confirmed the resilience of the industry. Investors urgently need to build an anti-fragile system, and at the same time pay attention to regulatory variables such as the EU Digital Asset Framework and the US FBI's anti-money laundering enforcement, so as to capture the opportunities of high-quality assets that have been wrongly killed during the reconstruction of security standards.
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What is the most important thing to make money in a bull market? Start by building your own trading system
Most veterans with more than five years of trading experience can deeply understand that in the early stages of trading, they often rely on intuition, but frequent losses make them realize that intuition is far less stable than the system.
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Buff叠满的哈里斯，真的有胜算吗？
近期哈里斯动作频繁，博彩平台上对其胜率的预测也不断提升，这位“buff叠满”的候选人是否顺利能赢下美国大选？本篇内容将解读哈里斯最近的“骚操作”以及其政策主张。
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Solana的下一个Alpha？一文读懂PayFi
一文了解 Solana 下一个热门叙事「PayFi」
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4Alpha Research：美元、黄金、比特币同步下跌奇景的迷思：是否因为日元加息和套息交易逆转？
日元套息交易风波导致的资产下跌终将过去，但日本货币政策和宏观经济将何去何从？
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哈里斯胜率飙升：如若当选，加密将何去何从？
总统候选人卡玛拉·哈里斯缺席“Crypto4Harris”活动引发不满，但她的支持率依然上升。如果哈里斯当选，这将对加密市场产生怎样的影响？一文带你全方位了解哈里斯的加密态度。
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