BTC plunges: long and short views

BTC plunges: long and short views

The macro environment has changed dramatically, and Bitcoin once fell below $80,000. Some people say it is a bull market pullback, while others say it is the beginning of a bear market. How will the market perform in the future?

20 articles
Dialogue with ProCap BTC Partner: Bitcoin bull market is not over yet, the correction will be milder than before
Morgan Creek Co-founder Anthony Pompliano invited Jeff Park, Head of Strategy at Bitwise Alpha and Chief Investment Officer and Partner at ProCap BTC, to discuss in depth "Why Bitcoin is not a bubble, but the needle that punctures the bubble", the rotation of funds between gold and Bitcoin, the trend of Bitcoin whales injecting spot assets into ETFs, and the significance of Coinbase's acquisition of Echo for institutional and retail investors.
Analyst: Bitcoin holders should be cautious about rebounds given that stablecoin minting indicators have not yet returned to active levels
Bitcoin has risen 12% this week and related exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have surged inflows, with analysts believing that Bitcoin could soon reach $100,000, but Markus Thielen, head of research at 10x Research, said in a market report: "Given that stablecoin minting indicators have not yet returned to active levels, we remain cautious about the sustainability of the current Bitcoin rally."
Analyst: Bitcoin expectations lowered to $85,000 after the "tariff dispute", focusing on subsequent liquidity release
Macroeconomist Lyn Alden expects bitcoin prices to be higher in 2025 than their current price of about $85,000, but she said it would have been much higher if not for U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff announcement in February. However, she said a “massive liquidity release” could be the catalyst bitcoin needs to reach more optimistic targets, similar to the global economic cycle from 2003 to 2007. While Alden said there’s a good chance bitcoin could revisit the $100,000 price level by the end of the year, she stressed that “down days” in broader financial markets will still be challenging for the asset, especially because bitcoin is traded 24/7.
Crypto analyst Eugene: BTC may test the 66k key level, and the probability of a short-term reversal is low
Crypto analyst Eugene said that the overall trend is still biased downward, although there is a possibility that BTC has bottomed out at 76k or a double bottom in the 74-76k range, but this probability is decreasing over time. He pointed out that structurally, there has not been enough selling in the market to clear the excess sentiment in this cycle. He expects BTC to drop to the 66k psychological mark set by Michael Saylor and pays attention to the performance of the market below this price. It is also mentioned that the upward trend or range of BTC has been broken in all time frames, and 75k is currently the last key support level. In addition, he mentioned that BTC has a high correlation with stocks and is not expected to see a short-term reversal due to the policies of Trump, Bessent or Powell. He said that if the PPI data performs well tonight and BTC reaches the high 80k range, he may consider shorting.
What will happen to BTC in the future? Six key economic reports this week may be the trend indicator
As BTC faces more downward pressure, the market awaits a slew of key economic reports set to be released this week that could influence price action.
Summary of bullish and bearish views: Will the market rise or fall in the future?
Will there still be a bull market for cryptocurrencies in 2025? Why am I still pessimistic despite all the positive factors? How should we think dialectically about the state of the cycle?
QCP Capital: Trump's remarks triggered panic in the U.S. stock market, and Bitcoin once again acted as a pressure valve
QCP Capital, a crypto investment institution in Singapore, said today that the optimism after Trump's victory quickly reversed, and the US stock market continued its downward trend. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indexes plummeted 2.7% and 3.8%, respectively. The market value of the Magnificent 7 in the US stock market evaporated by more than $830 billion, setting the largest single-day drop in the history of these stocks. Bearish sentiment is now in full swing, and the volume of US stock put options has soared to the highest level since 2020. What is the latest catalyst? Trump was interviewed by Fox News over the weekend, in which he seemed indifferent to the risk of a recession. Although he is known as the "stock market president", he said that an economic downturn may be necessary to "fix" the United States.
Analysis: Excessive long yen positions may provide support for Bitcoin and Nasdaq
CFTC data shows that excessive long positions in the yen may trigger a pullback, providing short-term support for Bitcoin and the Nasdaq index. Morgan Stanley pointed out that the stretching of speculative positions and bargain-hunting behavior of Japanese investors may slow the appreciation of the yen. Historically, similar situations have driven a rebound in risky assets. As of press time, Bitcoin was trading at $80,300, down nearly 5% this month, and the dollar was trading at 147.23 against the yen, hitting a five-month low of 145.53 earlier. Although there is hope for short-term relief, the long-term bullish trend of the yen remains, and we need to be wary of market fluctuations.
"312" previewed in advance? More than $120 million in on-chain liquidation is approaching, and the crypto market is still waiting for key catalysts
Coinciding with the fifth anniversary of the 312 incident, the crypto market once again experienced an across-the-board decline, and the large-scale liquidation wave on the chain exacerbated the panic in the market.
Arthur Hayes: BTC is a free market. When the stock market is subject to policy intervention and liquidity crisis, BTC will first fall and then rise
PANews reported on March 11 that Arthur Hayes tweeted that Bitcoin (BTC) is a global 24/7 market with no trading restrictions, cannot be re-issued, failure means bankruptcy or liquidation, and no country's finances rely on BTC's rise. In contrast, the stock market (Stonks) is only traded on 8/5, and only certain groups of people can participate. Although it cannot be re-issued, if it fails and has a political background, it will be rescued.
Recession fears triggered “Black Monday”: stocks and cryptocurrencies both suffered a sharp drop, will Bitcoin really fall to $75,000?
In his latest tweet, Hayes reiterated that Bitcoin could fall further to $75,000, warning: “If we enter this range, the market will be volatile.”
Arthur Hayes: BTC may bottom out at $70,000, waiting for central bank easing before reinvesting
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes tweeted that Bitcoin (BTC) may bottom out around $70,000, which is equivalent to a 36% correction from its all-time high of $110,000 and is a normal adjustment in the bull market.
Bitcoin falls to $80,000 again, where is the bottom?
The market plummeted, and Bitcoin fell to 80,000 US dollars again. Is the bear market coming?
Analyst: If the US economy enters a recession, Bitcoin's maximum potential drop is about $50,000
DeFi analyst Adaora Favour Nwankwo wrote on the X platform: "Bitcoin's price movement is closely related to US economic indicators. Here is a possible scenario: If a recession occurs, Bitcoin's maximum potential drop is about $50,000; if there is no recession, its floor price is expected to be between $70,000 and $75,000. Key market observers are closely watching the Consumer Price Index (CPI) data released on Wednesday, which may have a significant impact on Bitcoin's price movement." In response, Zhao Changpeng commented: "I think this only applies to the short term."
Bloomberg: Macroeconomic unfavorable factors offset Trump's promotion, and the decline of cryptocurrencies has further intensified
Cryptocurrency prices extended losses on Monday as escalating tariff war tensions and waning expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts offset a series of pro-crypto statements from U.S. President Donald Trump last week. Risk assets such as cryptocurrencies have been under pressure since the Fed hinted at a pause in rate cuts in mid-December. Friday's employment data showed that the U.S. unemployment rate rose from 4% to 4.1%, further adding to market uncertainty. "The surge in the 'underemployment' rate to a five-year high has heightened recession fears and pushed yields lower as expectations for rate cuts are brought forward to early summer," said Augustine Fan, partner at SignalPlus, a provider of cryptocurrency derivatives software.
Matrixport: The crypto market is waiting for greater positive catalysts, and retail investors' interest remains low
Matrixport said in its latest report that the White House Crypto Summit and the confirmation of the US strategic Bitcoin reserve failed to ignite market sentiment, the crypto market did not see a significant rise, and the perpetual contract funding rate remained at a single-digit level. This shows that retail investor enthusiasm remains sluggish, in stark contrast to April and December 2024, when funding rates soared to double-digit highs. Even the market momentum brought by Trump's official inauguration was relatively flat, clearly indicating that Bitcoin still needs a more influential catalyst to usher in a new round of gains.
What will happen to BTC after it drops to $80,000? A brief analysis of the four most likely scenarios
Based on different market perspectives, four scenarios based on three time frames are most likely to happen to Bitcoin.
QCP Capital: A more positive bullish outlook may not emerge until the third quarter
QCP Capital, a Singapore-based crypto investment firm, said in a statement today that last Friday's non-farm payrolls (NFP) data brought some respite to the stock and cryptocurrency markets, further reinforcing market expectations for a rate cut in May. Bitcoin consolidated around $86,000 for most of Saturday, seemingly setting the stage for a steady recovery this week. However, the momentum was interrupted by the Bybit hack during a period of low liquidity on Sunday, when hackers cashed out at least $300 million from a record $1.5 billion cryptocurrency theft, causing BTC and ETH to test key support levels again.
Analysis: BTC may fall to the $70,000 to $80,000 range, with few obvious positive catalysts in the short term
Jeff Mei, chief operating officer of BTSE, said in an interview with CoinDesk that geopolitical and economic uncertainties are prompting institutions to reduce their holdings of crypto assets, and Bitcoin may fall to the range of $70,000 to $80,000 in the next few weeks. He pointed out that only when the tariff war ends and the Federal Reserve resumes interest rate cuts can the major cryptocurrencies return to their previous historical highs. In addition, Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, expressed a pessimistic view on the technical prospects of Bitcoin. He believes that the current technical side of the price trend is very negative, and the high realized volatility further worsens the risk-adjusted performance of Bitcoin, while there are few obvious positive catalysts in the short term. CoinDesk's analysis also pointed out that Bitcoin is testing the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), and if it falls below this key support line, it may mean the break of an important trend line. Both market sentiment and technical aspects show great downward pressure.
Trading time: BTC hits $80,000, Arthur Hayes warns of 78,000 support level
Daily market key data review and trend analysis, produced by PANews.