OSL Trading Time: Trump effect detonates the crypto market, ETH/BTC exchange rate falls below 0.03 in the short term

Market Overview: Bitcoin surged past $106,000, driven by optimism around Trump's pro-crypto policies, with predictions of reaching $150,000. The likelihood of a US strategic Bitcoin reserve under Trump rose to 70%, mirroring global trends like Switzerland's proposal to add Bitcoin to central bank reserves.
Ethereum Struggles: Despite $166M ETF inflows, ETH struggles to break $3,500 amid leadership changes at the Ethereum Foundation, while major holders signal confidence by increasing stakes.
Altcoin Momentum: Dogecoin gains traction due to the "Trump effect," but concerns persist over Bitcoin's rally and Trump's crypto stance. Solana surpassed Tether to rank fourth in market cap, and TRUMP-related tokens (e.g., MAGA) saw sharp rises.
Key Data (Jan 20):
- Bitcoin: $100,357 (+7.12% YTD), daily volume $71.43B
- Ethereum: $3,190.76 (-4.60% YTD), daily volume $62.8B
- S&P 500 and Nasdaq up ~2% YTD.
ETF Flows (Jan 17): Bitcoin ETFs saw $979M inflows; Ethereum ETFs added $23.87M.
Regulatory Moves: Police recovered $28M in Bitcoin from fraudsters using Australian platforms, while US states like Massachusetts push for Bitcoin reserves.
Notable Events: Trump’s inauguration (Jan 21), ETH/BTC rate briefly below 0.03, and meme coins (e.g., MELANIA) gaining attention.

Trends highlight crypto market volatility tied to political developments and institutional adoption.

1. Market observation

Keywords: TRUMP, SOL, BTC

Bitcoin recently broke through the important $106,000 mark for the first time, a breakthrough that is closely tied to the upcoming inauguration of Donald Trump. Traders are generally optimistic about Trump's cryptocurrency policy during his presidency, predicting that Bitcoin could reach a new high of $150,000. Bitcoin regained key liquidity levels last week and encountered no significant resistance when approaching its all-time high, which further boosted market confidence.

The probability of the United States establishing a strategic Bitcoin reserve during the Trump administration has risen to 70%. This trend has been echoed internationally, with Swiss supporters also proposing to add Bitcoin reserves to their central bank portfolios. These signs indicate that Bitcoin is gradually being integrated into the global national reserve management system.

However, Ethereum's performance has surprised traders in the context of the overall cryptocurrency market capitalization expanding to $3.59 trillion. Despite recent support from $166 million in ETF inflows, Ethereum is still struggling to break through the $3,500 mark. It is worth noting that the Ethereum Foundation is undergoing a major leadership reorganization, including a series of changes announced by co-founder Vitalik Buterin. But the behavior of major Ethereum holders to strengthen their holdings may suggest a positive strategic adjustment.

In this wave of cryptocurrency gains, traders and investors are also optimistic about the prospects of Dogecoin, expecting it to achieve significant appreciation driven by the "Trump effect". However, the market also faces some challenges: the police recently recovered 28 million pounds worth of Bitcoin from an international fraud gang that used Australian cryptocurrency trading websites to conduct fraudulent activities. At the same time, some critics have expressed concerns about the continued rise of Bitcoin and questioned President-elect Trump's stance on cryptocurrencies.

2. Key data (as of 10:00 HKT on January 20)

S&P 500: 5,996.66 (+1.96% year-to-date)
Nasdaq: 19,630.20 (+1.65% year-to-date)
10-year Treasury yield: 4.630% (+5.40 basis points this year)
US dollar index: 109.26 (+0.71% year-to-date)
Bitcoin: $100,357 (+7.12% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $71.43 billion
Ethereum: $3,190.76 (-4.60% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $62.8 billion