Trading time: CZ brings BNB on-chain market heat, global central banks usher in "super week"

Market Observation: Bitcoin rebounded nearly 10% from its low of $76,600, but analysts remain cautious. Markus Thielen of 10x Research suggests a potential 8-month consolidation period, while Bitfinex analysts view the current adjustment as a normal "washout." Bitcoin's correlation with traditional markets (e.g., S&P 500) and macro factors like Treasury yields will influence its next move. Economist Peter Schiff warns that a Nasdaq downturn could drag Bitcoin to $20,000, contrasting gold's 13% rise since December 2023.
Key Data (March 17):
- Bitcoin: $83,149 (-11.15% YTD), daily spot volume $24.5B
- Ethereum: $1,895 (-43.22% YTD), daily spot volume $10.5B
- Fear & Greed Index: 32 (fear)
- 24-hour liquidations: $257M (BTC $95.3M, ETH $44.8M)
ETF Flows (March 14): Bitcoin ETFs saw $68.4M outflows; Ethereum ETFs lost $35.3M.
Global Central Bank "Super Week": The Fed, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England will hold policy meetings (March 17–23). Rates are expected to remain unchanged, but economic outlooks may sway markets amid trade policy uncertainty.
Notable Events:
- Binance founder CZ's BNB purchases (TST, mubarak) sparked BNB Chain activity, with mubarak's market cap hitting $150M.
- North Korea's Lazarus Group now holds 13,562 BTC, making it the third-largest state-owned BTC entity.
- 51% of U.S. voters oppose adding crypto to national reserves (Data For Progress poll).
Upcoming Catalysts:
- Nvidia GTC conference (March 17–21) and Fed rate decision (March 20).
- Analyst Timothy Peterson predicts Bitcoin could reach $126,000 by June.
Sector Trends: Crypto markets broadly declined, but CeFi (+2.71%) and RWA (+0.72%) sectors gained.

1. Market observation

Keywords: FOMC, ETH, BTC

Bitcoin ended last week with a positive line, and BTC has rebounded nearly 10 points from the low of $76,600. Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, said that it is difficult to judge whether Bitcoin will resume its upward trend in the short term, and it is recommended to close short positions at the current stage. He pointed out that Bitcoin may need to go through a consolidation period of up to 8 months. The market is currently in a wait-and-see attitude, and the ETF market lacks the motivation to "buy on dips". Most ETF fund inflows come from arbitrage-driven hedge funds, and the continued low funding rate also suppresses the willingness to further deploy capital.

Bitfinex analysts believe that the current adjustment is a normal "washout" behavior. Although multiple technical indicators have turned bearish, Bitcoin's four-year cycle is still an important factor affecting prices. Due to the high correlation between Bitcoin and traditional financial markets, its trend may need to find a bottom in sync with the stock market (especially the S&P 500 index). He pointed out that $72,000 to $73,000 constitutes a key support range, but Bitcoin's next move will be mainly dominated by macro factors such as global Treasury yields and stock market trends. Although the impact of the trade war has been digested by the market to a certain extent, continued economic pressure may further dampen market sentiment. It is worth noting that based on historical seasonal patterns, network economist Timothy Peterson predicts that Bitcoin is expected to hit a new high before June, with a median target price of $126,000.

Economist Peter Schiff warned that a 12% drop in the Nasdaq index could indicate a bigger drop for Bitcoin. He analyzed that if the Nasdaq enters a bear market and falls 40%, the price of Bitcoin could fall to $20,000. In contrast, gold has a negative correlation with the Nasdaq and has risen 13% since December 16, 2023.

In terms of market dynamics, the latest poll by Data For Progress shows that 51% of American voters oppose the government's inclusion of cryptocurrencies in its strategic reserves. At the same time, the number of bitcoins held by the hacker group Lazarus Group has reached 13,562, making North Korea the world's third largest bitcoin-holding state entity. On the other hand, Binance founder Zhao Changpeng spent BNB to buy TST and mubarak over the weekend, which may lead to a recovery in the BNB chain market. GMGN data shows that in the past 24 hours, 7 Meme coin projects have a market value of more than $1 million, among which mubarak has a market value of nearly $150 million.

From March 17 to 23, major central banks around the world will usher in a highly anticipated "super week", with a number of central banks including the Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, and the Bank of England holding monetary policy meetings. The market generally expects central banks to keep interest rates unchanged, but investors need to pay close attention to the central bank's judgment on the economic outlook. Especially against the backdrop of uncertainty in Trump's trade policy, the central bank's attitude may have an important impact on market sentiment.

2. Key data (as of 13:30 HKT on March 17)

Bitcoin: $83,149.42 (-11.15% year-to-date), daily spot volume $24.523 billion
Ethereum: $1,895.97 (-43.22% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $10.533 billion
Fear of corruption index: 32 (fear)
Average GAS: BTC 2 sat/vB, ETH 0.48 Gwei
Market share: BTC 60.77%, ETH 8.4%
Upbit 24-hour trading volume ranking: XRP, AUCTION, BTC, STMX, VANA
24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 0.998
Sector ups and downs: Crypto market sectors generally fell, CeFi sector rose 2.71%, RWA sector rose 0.72%
24-hour liquidation data: A total of 94,553 people were liquidated worldwide, with a total liquidation amount of US$257 million, including BTC liquidation of US$95.26 million and ETH liquidation of US$44.77 million.