Next week's macro outlook: Non-farm payrolls, Powell, and Trump compete for the spotlight, and the Fed's bet on rate cuts increases

PANews reported on March 1 that the dollar held a nearly two-week high after U.S. inflation data met expectations on Friday, and the quarrel between Trump and Zelensky also boosted the dollar's safe-haven appeal. U.S. Treasuries had their strongest start to the year since the COVID-19 crisis in early 2020. The 10-year Treasury yield, which was close to 4.8% in January, is now close to 4.2%, and the two-year Treasury yield fell below 4% during the session, the first time in four months. U.S. stocks almost wiped out their gains in 2025, but rebounded sharply on Friday, narrowing their losses for the second consecutive week. Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:

Monday 22:45, US February S&P Global Manufacturing PMI final value

At 23:00 on Monday, the U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for February and the U.S. construction spending monthly rate for January

At 21:50 on Tuesday, 2025 FOMC voting member and St. Louis Fed President Moussalem will deliver a speech

At 3:20 on Wednesday, FOMC permanent voting member and New York Fed President Williams spoke at the Bloomberg Investment Forum

Wednesday 21:15, US February ADP employment data

At 22:45 on Wednesday, the final value of the US S&P Global Services PMI for February

At 1:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve released the Beige Book on economic conditions.

Thursday 20:30, US Challenger Enterprise Layoffs in February

Thursday 21:30 U.S. initial jobless claims for the week ending March 1

At 21:30 on Friday, the seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls, unemployment rate, hourly wage annual rate and monthly rate in the United States for February

At 23:45 on Friday, FOMC permanent voting member, New York Fed President Williams and Fed Governor Bowman participated in a panel discussion on the U.S. Monetary Policy Forum Report organized by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

U.S. nonfarm payrolls for February are due on Friday, which could be a key indicator of the direction of U.S. interest rates. Economists estimate that the U.S. economy added 133,000 jobs in February, down from 143,000 in January; the unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4%, while average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% month-on-month, down from 0.5% in January. The January PCE report is the last inflation data that Fed officials will have before their next policy meeting on March 18-19. After cutting interest rates by 100 basis points in three consecutive meetings through the end of 2024, the Fed is almost certain to keep interest rates steady for the second consecutive meeting this year.

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Author: PA一线

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