OSL Trading Time: BTC OTC supply shrinks and institutions enter the market, ETH breaks and tests market confidence

Market Trends: Bitcoin fluctuates around $95,000 with a 70% reduction in OTC supply since 2021, signaling potential long-term supply shock. Ethereum drops below $2,600, raising concerns despite retail-driven resilience.
Project Updates: Lido launches Ethereum V3 staking protocol, Uniswap debuts Unichain (Layer 2), and Solana gains institutional traction as a Bitcoin competitor.
Institutional Moves: Visa plans a Bitcoin rewards card, Japanese firms like Gumi and Metaplanet invest heavily in BTC, while stablecoin market is projected to hit $16.97B by 2025.
Key Data (Feb 12):
- BTC: $96,032 (+2.8% YTD), ETH: $2,612 (-21.88% YTD)
- Bitcoin ETF outflows: -$80.5M; Ethereum ETF: $0M
Upcoming Events: Fed Chair Powell’s testimony, U.S. CPI data release, and Solana ETF applications under SEC review.
Hot News Highlights:
- Trump nominates a16z’s crypto policy head for CFTC.
- Ethereum Foundation grants $200K for Pectra upgrade.
- FTX to repay $6.5B–$7B in initial phase.
- Hong Kong recognizes BTC/ETH for investment visas.
- Analysts predict high LTC ETF approval odds (90%).

1. Market observation

Keywords: Lido, ETH, BTC

Cryptocurrency markets have shown encouraging signs recently, with Bitcoin favored to hit new highs due to its increasing correlation with gold. However, Bitcoin is currently fluctuating around $95,000 and breaking below a key trendline, coupled with a 70% reduction in over-the-counter supply since 2021, which could indicate a long-term supply shock and price repositioning.

In terms of project development, Lido launched the third version of the Ethereum Liquidity Staking Protocol, Uniswap launched its Ethereum Layer 2 blockchain Unichain, and Solana's continued growth and increased institutional adoption make it a strong competitor to Bitcoin. Although the Ethereum market has shown resilience in the context of altcoin declines and growth is mainly driven by retail investors, its price recently fell below the $2,600 mark, causing market concerns.

From the perspective of institutional dynamics, the stablecoin market is expected to reach $16.97 billion by 2025. Visa plans to launch a Bitcoin rewards credit card in cooperation with Fold. Japanese company Gumi also plans to purchase $6.5 million in Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Japanese stock Metaplanet has surged 3,575% in a year against the backdrop of Bitcoin accumulation. However, it is worth noting that investors' concerns about meme coins may affect the legitimacy of Bitcoin as an asset.

2. Key data (as of 09:40 HKT on February 12)

S&P 500: 6,068.50 (+3.18% year-to-date)
Nasdaq: 19,643.86 (+1.72% year-to-date)
10-year Treasury yield: 4.537% (-3.90 basis points year-to-date)
US dollar index: 108.04 (-0.40% year-to-date)
Bitcoin: $96,032 (+2.80% YTD), with daily spot volume of $32.49 billion
Ethereum: $2,612.74 (-21.88% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $20.61 billion