On-chain data analysis of the Potato Guarantee liquidation incident reveals a massive on-chain "black market migration" triggered by US sanctions.

On-chain data analysis reveals the shutdown of Tudou Guarantee, a major escrow platform for illicit activities, triggered a significant migration of users and capital to alternative platforms, primarily driven by escalating U.S. sanctions against Southeast Asian cybercrime.

Platform Shutdown: Tudou Guarantee, which became the dominant escrow service for black/gray markets after Huione Guarantee's shutdown in May 2025, ceased all operations on January 16, 2026.
Business Contraction: Data shows Tudou's transaction volume plummeted starting December 2025, with deposit addresses becoming nearly inactive after January 10, 2026, followed by a peak in user fund refunds.
Migration to Alternatives: Following Tudou's decline, a large-scale user migration occurred. Merchants switched to new platforms like "Xinbi Guarantee," whose daily USDT transaction inflows surged to 2,700-2,800 between January 8-16.
Root Cause - U.S. Sanctions: The collapse is directly linked to 2025 U.S. sanctions targeting Southeast Asian cybercrime entities, including the sanctioning of Cambodia's Prince Group (and seizure of ~127,271 BTC) and Myanmar-based fraud organizations, forcing criminal networks to halt or relocate operations.
Risk Identification: All identified addresses associated with these escrow platforms have been flagged as high-risk by blockchain security analysts.

On January 16th, Tudou Guarantee announced that it would cease operations and remove all public groups effective immediately. In response to this event, the Beosin team conducted statistical analysis of transaction data from the relevant addresses using the blockchain tracking and analysis tool Beosin Trace, and shares the results as follows:

Potato Guarantee: One of the largest guarantee platforms

In various illegal/suspicious transaction scenarios, both parties need a "guarantor" as an intermediary to facilitate the transaction. The core function of a guarantee platform is to assume the responsibility of intermediary guarantee throughout the entire transaction process, establishing trust and endorsement for both parties.

As a new type of matchmaking platform, escrow platforms have seen rapid growth in both user base and capital volume in recent years. According to data from Beosin, in 2025, mainstream escrow platforms had over 330,000 users, over 1.26 million deposits, and a total deposit volume exceeding 8.7 billion USDT.

Tudou Guarantee is a platform that provides guarantee services for black and gray market activities through Telegram. After Huione Guarantee was shut down by Telegram in May 2025, Tudou Guarantee became its main successor. Huione Guarantee transferred its business to Tudou Guarantee through share acquisitions and customer referrals. The deposit volume of the two platforms in 2025 is shown in the following figure:

As shown in the chart, after Huiwang Guarantee was blocked in May 2025, Tudou Guarantee's transaction volume began to rise significantly, followed by a sharp decline in December. On January 16, 2026, Tudou Guarantee officially announced the cessation of its operations.

Business has been significantly scaled back since December of last year.

By analyzing the deposit and refund addresses of Potato Equity using Beosin Trace, we can see that starting in December 2025, the number of transactions at Potato Equity's deposit addresses decreased significantly, and after January 10, 2026, the addresses were almost inactive.

Beosin Trace statistics

On January 11, 2026, the refund address of Tudou Guarantee experienced a peak in outflows of funds, which coincided with the period when Tudou Guarantee was preparing to cease operations and clear out users.

Beosin Trace statistics

Currently, some merchants who previously used Potato Guarantee have withdrawn their deposits and directly switched to Xinbi Guarantee to continue their business. The on-chain activity data of their deposit addresses is shown below: From January 8th to 16th, the number of USDT transactions flowing into Xinbi Guarantee deposit addresses remained at 2700-2800 per day, indicating a surge in business volume.

According to Beosin Trace statistics, all addresses listed on the above-mentioned escrow platforms have been identified and marked as high-risk addresses by Beosin KYT. For example, currently active addresses for new coin escrow:

Beosin KYT Risk Assessment Results

Conclusion

In 2025, the United States intensified its sanctions against cybercrime in Southeast Asia. In May, the US announced sanctions against Funnull Technology Inc. and its executives in the Philippines for involvement in virtual asset scams; in October, sanctions were imposed on the Prince Group in Cambodia and 146 related individuals , freezing and seizing 127,271 bitcoins (worth approximately $15 billion at the time), and formally severing the connection between the Huiwang Group and the US financial system; in November, sanctions were imposed on organizations in Myanmar involved in online fraud . These sanctions forced various Southeast Asian criminal organizations to cease operations or relocate, including Huiwang Payment, which announced a suspension of operations, and Tudou Guarantee, which announced its cessation of operations.